Murray, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

788
FXUS63 KPAH 152353
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
653 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather risk remains highly conditional this afternoon
  and evening. Isolated storms so far have been elevated with
  hail being the main concern. If a strong cap can break, all
  hazards including large hail, tornadoes, and damaging wind
  would be possible.

- A significant severe weather outbreak is likely Friday
  afternoon into Friday evening. Widespread damaging wind is
  the greatest risk, but scattered large hail and strong
  tornadoes will also be probable.

- More unsettled weather returns Sunday night through Wednesday
  with more severe weather potential, especially on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

A broad 500 mb trough ejecting across the central CONUS will
cause increasing height falls this evening across the FA.
Dewpoints are now in the 70s with MLCAPE between 2000-3000 J/kg.
While a cluster of convection has now entered portions of
southeast Missouri, a stout EML between 900-825mb is still
present on model soundings supporting elevated convection.
Given steep 3-6 km lapse rates between 8.0-9.0 C/km and 60-70
kts of sfc-6 km shear, the main concern will be the potential
for storms to produce extremely large hail. Confidence still
remains low in the ability to erode the cap due to modest
synoptic scale forcing for ascent along with how widespread
convective spatial coverage will be into this evening. Thermal
profiles also indicate a lot of dry air in the column further
north which may limit coverage. Overall, the risk remains very
conditional, but if storms do manage to become more surface
based, all hazards will become probable.

Another round of scattered convection will be possible overnight
into early Friday morning, but the parameters overall are more
marginal for severe weather at best. If coverage this afternoon ends
up being more widespread, it may help to push the boundary further
south of the FA. With that said, as an embedded 500 mb
shortwave digs into IL/MO Friday afternoon as the left exit
region of a 250 mb 120-130 kt jet max provides increasing upper
level divergence. Robust forcing and lift will cause a residual
EML to quickly erode by Friday afternoon, supporting explosive
convective initiation. Confidence remains high in a significant
severe weather outbreak occurring with SPC`s D2 outlook now
upgraded to a moderate risk across the entire FA. The parameters
are quite alarming for a higher end event with 3000-5000 J/kg
of SBCAPE and 60 kts of effective bulk shear. Given a theta-e
3-6 km difference of 30-40K and DCAPE over 1100 J/kg, the
greatest concern will be the potential for widespread damaging
wind gusts upwards 70-80 mph. While more scattered, the
potential for large hail and strong tornadoes will also be
fairly significant given steep 3-6 km lapse rates between 7.5-
8.5 C/km, 30-40 kts of sfc-1km shear, 3CAPE around 80 J/kg.
Cannot stress enough the potential for strong tornados with STP
values around 6 to 8 and sfc-1 km SRH values of 200-300 m2/s2.
The only uncertainty is how quickly convective initiation occurs
as the 12z CAMs differ by a few hours between 17- 20z. As for
the storm mode, storms initially will be more discrete and
supercelluar with all hazards before quickly growing upscale
into a MCS with a transition to more of a damaging wind and QLCS
tornado risk. The only good news is the severe weather risk
should be mainly east of the FA by 04z Friday night.

After fropa occurs with a cold front, dry and tranquil weather
conditions can be expected on Saturday. Another round of
unsettled weather quickly returns by Sunday as a warm front
lifts back north. Daily chances for showers and storms continue
through Wednesday as another 500 mb trough approaches. The
pattern remains favorable for more severe weather potential,
especially on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Gusty winds and a few showers early in the TAF period will
diminish over the next few hours. The exception will be near
MVN/EVV/OWB, where more unstable air remains in place. Could see
a few showers and storms develop at those sites late in the
evening, very close to 06Z or just after. Put a VCTS in for a
few hours to account of that as a boundary passes through. The
next round of severe thunderstorms will arrive Friday afternoon.
All modes of severe weather will be possible with those storms
including very large hail, 70mph wind gusts and strong
tornadoes.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...KC